i have raced one short track race. i had a lot of fun but it was very hard.
in the case of my race being up front made a big difference. the first few turns were really big bottlenecks for the group. i am pretty sure that if kanga had been near the front he might have beaten me in the short track.
the two or three guys at the very front had a big advantage as they didn't slow down at all, and then didn't have to pick their way through traffic as much.
outside of that the course is going to determine what matters most. in keyesville i hadn't pre-rode the course at all. it seemed like every lap i was going faster through the turns/descent. the climb wasn't very steep or long and it suited me well, a steeper or longer climb would have put me much farther back.
traffic was quite an issue for me. in the first few laps there was quite a bit of elbow rubbing in corners and i wasn't very aggressive but was able to make passes by carrying speed and short bursts out of corners. after the first few laps passing became even rougher. i was lapping slower riders, and passing people who had been in front of me and popped. the lap riders were pretty easy to get around but the riders losing position did their best to make themselves wide!
you can count on a few people going too hard and popping, i think if you dose your efforts and keep from falling too far off the leaders you will have a good chance in the last few laps. at the end of the short track i raced in, i was closing on the leaders after the half way mark but they were way faster in the first few laps.