Stock Market

Discussion in 'The Pub' started by Judge Shredd, Aug 19, 2014.

  1. bing!

    bing! Active Member

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    Ti....iiiiime, is on my side. Yes, it is :)

    Short term prospects - the holidays are coming. Medium term - new CEO reinvigorating company after losing its way these last few years. refocuses on cheap chic, which is what theyve been known for. the Fed is scheduled to wind down QE3 next year. After effects are expected to trigger higher rates, inflation and, in my mind a rush to more consumerism as a response to the first two factors. Long term - the company has grown steadily and increased dividends for all of the last 30 years. retail floor space has suffered during the economic down turn. company has retained a large footprint in market. Div yield at my ave cost is about 3.6+%.

    Over all, very happy with this position.
     

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  2. bing!

    bing! Active Member

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    Target hits $71! US and Canadian comps up, Canadian revenues up 43%, coolness factor up a notch with Story from NY doing merch curating, Tom's shoes onboard, online presense getting a revamo, and consumers responding positively to changes. Woot woot!

    [video=youtube_share;mIbUPjtz9Kw]http://youtu.be/mIbUPjtz9Kw[/video]
     
  3. bing!

    bing! Active Member

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    I'm feeling a bit adventurous. Read this today.

    “Falling oil prices will eventually give Russia the upper hand and deeply injure the U.S. energy industry. The falling ruble makes Russian oil less expensive and more desirable to other countries—Russia also produces oil quite cheaply while the American shale industry has a larger cost of operation. Russia is more than able to weather the current storm. They (Russia) have a $200 billion a year trade surplus. They have over $400 billion in reserve currency. They’ve increased their gold reserve. They have much lower debt to their GDP than America. So yes there’s pain in the economy… [but] it's far from terminal.”

    We are not going to send these bastids back to the stone ages. I'm thinking, in 1 year, everything will be close to normal. RUSL is down already 87% this year. If Putin goes down, JACKPOT!

    RUSL is a leveraged Russian ETF, highly risky, and as far as investment goes, it's like a ferret on crack on ecstasy. Do not get in if you can't lose the money. This sort of investment could be wiped out entirely.

    rusl.JPG
     
  4. surftime

    surftime New Member

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    speculation is fun and hype is hype. Russia is not solid as that quote implies but on the other hand i doubt this will take them down. should be a fun ride
     
  5. bing!

    bing! Active Member

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    'Twas a good year with TGT. Looking at GOOGLE. Now below IPO at $490

    25x PE. Anxieties of online ad spending fracturing into other companies like Facebook has cause valuations to drop.

    Negative growth in the last quarter of -5.8% didnt help either.

    Me thinks it's a solid company thats going to find a new normal. Put in a token buy in at 375 as a personal reminder. I wouldn't touch it right now.

    If you're looking to buy something, I feel strongly that firearm inventories are normalizing and will benefit SWHC and RGR. Valuations are very low. I have seen no evidence that anything is going on but the The steady crawl back to the valuation mean. Potential 30% upside. SWHCs partnership w General Dynamics to bid for the USA Army sidearm is a plus. If the m&p .45 were to take the place of the Beretta M9, that would be a win.
     
  6. launchpad

    launchpad Member

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    Da fuq? Google is nowhere below IPO. Ain't never gonna be in our lifetime neither. IPO was at $85 and it's split since then at least once so IPO be more like at $42.50. No comment on the rest of GOOGLE. I don't know much about them.

    Like your firearms stock picks though. I bought a bunch after those mass shootings and gun control scares but sold too early. My largest position is in Gazprom currently. P/E of 1.6. A large amount of geopolitical risk you are taking on though. With investing like with clipless pedals and 29ers you need to look at disconfirming evidence though and think for yourself. But keep in mind things are cheap for a reason most of the time.

    I also like oil stocks in general these days. I feel the Saudis are bluffing about keeping oil cheap.

    Regarding overall investing. Like others have said. Don't play the stock picking game with money you can't afford to lose. If you aren't into the game and don't enjoy research and taking risks then I recommend you invest in index funds via dollar cost averaging. Also constantly learning and studying and sticking with what you know (everything affects the market) is good advice as well. Don't buy pharma stocks if you don't know shit about how the drug approval process works. Don't invest in bankruptcies or mergers unless you have a good bit of legal knowledge in those fields. If you have a teenage daughter and she and her friends are all into some new store at the mall though then that might be worth looking into (ala Peter Lynch).
     
  7. bing!

    bing! Active Member

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    Thanks. For whatever reason, I am remembering a $500 IPO price. Will look into it.

    Yeah. Stock picking isn't for everyone, and strategies can take years to pan out. If you don't have the coin and the time, best to leave it to (well researched and background checked) pros.
     
  8. bing!

    bing! Active Member

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    swhc up 15% RGR up 5%, on recovery of firearm demand. looks like the front loading of inventory by retailers and buyers due to concerns about new laws is slowly ending. this will be a long run, no need to sell just yet. maybe next year.

    Thanks for the tip on oil. Looking at Halliburton.
     
  9. bing!

    bing! Active Member

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    Almost 6 months ago, picked up two financially solid business with stable business models that came into some tough markets conditions. Sturm Ruger and Smith and Wesson.

    Their sales collapsed when when the panic buying from perceived threats to gun ownership stopped after a good run of a few years.

    My theory, the businesses are sound, stable, and it will revert back to the mean/normal business. At that, I was looking at at least a 30% run up in the stock price.

    My best case scenario is that another government gun grab scare comes up and there will be another run on guns and bullets. Thank you Mr. Gummint man. :)

    http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/article/2560750

    "As promised, executive actions to impose gun control on the nation, targeting the top-selling rifle in the country, the AR-15 style semi-automatic, with a ban on one of the most-used AR bullets by sportsmen and target shooters.
    The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives this month revealed that it is proposing to put the ban on 5.56 mm ammo on a fast track, immediately driving up the price of the bullets and prompting retailers, including the huge outdoors company Cabela’s, to urge sportsmen to urge Congress to stop the move."


    image.jpg

     
  10. UR2KLOS

    UR2KLOS Senior Member

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    I'm not sure what your point is. A year ago RGR was $80/share. Kind of makes a good argument for low cost index mutual funds instead of buying individual stocks unless you happen to have some expertise about a particular company or industry without having illegal inside information.
     
  11. BikeThePlanet

    BikeThePlanet Active Member

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    Even Warren Buffett reccomends low cost index funds for the vast majority of investors unless you have enough money to buy enough variety and hold large shares of blue chip stocks to have a balanced portfolio. Fees kill a lot of people's returns.
     
  12. bing!

    bing! Active Member

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    I have no illegal information. All I have are a few subscriptions to news services, newspapers and I am always watching for good companies who have fallen into temporary bad times. I do spend a lot of time reading news, and doing basic research before I buy something. Didn't buy at 80. I'm averaging now at 42-43, when all the news was how bad sales were. I was under water for a few months. I try not to buy when things are rosy.

    I like mutual funds.
     
  13. bing!

    bing! Active Member

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    bought a starting position in Walmart.

    reasoning - rising interest rates and inflationary pressures are generally good environments for retailers. WMT is currently going thru some troubled waters, I think its because shoppers are now really sick of cheap shit. theyll likely change gears soon after the recent earnings miss. 2.5% dividend yield plus 15x PE valuation. Looking to buy more on weakness.
     
  14. A D NOH

    A D NOH Custom Newbie Title

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    What brokerage are you guys using?

    Are you guys predominantly traders or investors?
     

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