Cancellara to win TDF?

[Tedroy]

I don't know much about road cycling but this dude seems to be the shiznit! He's in fine form.
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CSC's Fabian Cancellara chased down a last-kilometer attack by FdJ's Phillipe Gilbert, passed him and soloed to his second stage win in this year's Tour de Suisse on Sunday. The stage finished near Cancellara's hometown of Wohlen bei Bern, Switzerland.

Cancellara, the world time trial champion who won stage 7 by solo'ing for the final five kilometers, showed again that he is unmatched in late-race attacks, which he also used to win this year's Milan-San Remo and last year's stage 3 of the Tour de France.

Cancellara had to sit on the ground after the finish line to recover from the effort.

"I'm speechless," he said. "I tried to go with five kilometers left, but it just didn't happen. I didn't see this happening, but when Phillipe Gilbert went with one kilometer to go, I took a chance. It was perfect."

[Rivet]

My first reaction is to say No Way, Cancellara is a "roleur" which is French for Big fricken dude who puts out lots of power and therefore can't get over the high mountains with the GC contenders, however there has been talk about his abilities to climb very well for his size and maybe if he lost 10 kilos he might morph into a 3 week stage race rider. Miguel Indurain used just this tactic and became a 5 time TDF winner. Also winning a 3 week tour requires a myriad of abilities that go far beyond just being fast on the bike. Being able to handle stress and recover well after every hard day and tactically preparing for and dealing with adversity, these are two things that every great tour rider excelled at.

[bvader]

Cadel Evans

[Tedroy]

Explain "puts out lots of power and therefore can't get over the high mountains with the GC contenders". How would you get over high mtns without lots of power?

[Abui]

Originally Posted by bvader

cadel Evans

+1

[bvader]

I suspect he means is required to put out alot of power because he is so big, but it really comes down to power to weight.

There is "the magic number" these guys have to get too, for Lance it was something like 510 watts sustained at his body weight of 70Kg or around a little less that 7 w/kg

[Tedroy]

Originally Posted by bvader

Cadel Evans

Why Cadel?

[OffRoadie]

There's no way Cancellara will win the GC. He can win stages, but not the entire thing (he won 2 last year). There are a couple of reasons for this.

1) When climbing, what matters is Power/Weight. He's really big with lots of muscle, meaning lots of power, but too heavy to climb well enough to win. He's an excellent time trialist, which is good, but more time can be gained in the mountains than in time trials.

2) CSC-Saxo Bank has Carlos Sastre on their roster. He finished 4th in 2007 and 2nd in the Vuelta in 2007. He will be CSC's guy for the General Classification, because he has a better chance of winning it. So his team will work for Sastre, not Cancellara.

Originally Posted by Tedroy

Why Cadel?

He placed 2nd last year, sandwiched between two guys that aren't in the Tour this year (Alberto Contador and Levi Leipheimer, both from Discovery Channel now Astana).

[bvader]

Originally Posted by Tedroy

Why Cadel?

Because he may be a better all around rider, and he came in second last year. He is as good as bet as anyone and has a strong team including Yaroslav Popyvych.

[Tedroy]

Roadies, share your picks for the big win.
(no betting of course)
I still dig this race as I'm relatively new to it. Sure beats monster trucks and nascar!

[jonathan_sykes81]

Originally Posted by tedroy

sure Beats Monster Trucks And Nascar!

+1

[Rivet]

The easy picks are Evans and Sastre but my favorites are Sastre's teamate Andy Schleck, and Rabobank rider Denis Menchov. Also Stijn DeVolder will be the wild card.

[bvader]

Yeah but this year has lost a little luster. No Prelude, Not Team Time Trial, No Time Bonus For Mountain Top stage wins

But I am still getting geeked...

A hint, DVR the morning "live" airing with extra time. Phil Liggett and Paul Sherwen announce that version and IMHO are much better than the evening / primetime airing Although I do like Bob Rolle, but you get more of the race from Phil and Paul

[gest24]

Originally Posted by Tedroy

Why Cadel?

Because started out on the dirt!

I just want to see Chipolte do well.

[jonathan_sykes81]

I am still not happy about Astana not being able to race.

[ericfoltz]

My podium picks:

Cadel Evans
Alejandro Valverde (if he doesn't crash)
Dennis Menchov

Although he doesn't stand a chance for the win, I did really enjoy watching Cancellera in the yellow for the first week last year. The stage win were he just blew everyone off his wheel at the end may have been the highlight of the Tour for me last year (before all the doping crap that went on after).

[Abui]

My Christmas present was a subscription to Cycle Sport America. Wow, the Tour issue is unbeatable, 188 pages with details on the riders, the teams, the stages, the history ... (interviews, pictures, humor, ...). Enough to make the tour exciting again.

In 2008 6 mountains over 2000 meters vs. 4 last year. The day before Alpe d'Huez they'll do the highest and hardest climb in the race - Col de la Bonette-Restefonde. At 2802 meters France's highest mountain pass. (9193 ft.)

Excerpts from "At A Glance"

Damiano Cunego

Media friendly 7
Open and gives good copy when he engages his mouth before his brain.
Style 7
Makes an effort with his hair, starting to resemble Luke Skywalker.

Tom Boonen
Climbing 2
Can't be bothered with all that

Mark Cavendish
Climbing 2
Nope ..
Time trialing 2
...nothing to see here
Sprinting 9
Now we're talking -- Cav is about the fastest thing on two wheels.
Style 5
Owns a white Gucci man bag

[Rivet]

The best thing about UK mags Cycle Sport and Pro Cycling is the writing. Those Brits have a great sense of humor....at least until they move to the US and become another SoCal douchers.

[OffRoadie]

Boonen would rather do cocaine than climb.

[ubermensch]

CSC has been staying under the radar this year, and I have a feeling they will keep the tour animated this year with all of that firepower. I'm not sure I buy the reports that Sastre is in as good a form as he says he's in though, and I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up working for Andy Schleck to get Schleck to the top of the GC.

This biggest disappointment for me this year is that CSF Navigare (the new Panaria) didn't get an invite. Those guys seemed to be in every break during the Giro this year and, not only that but, they delivered. There was even that stage where they had Sella and Baliani already in the break, and they still sent Cuapio to bridge up to the breakaway! The only other wild card team that can bring the excitement like that is Barloworld.