Time to buy that road bike

[ODB]

... or beg your boss to let you telecommute:

A new energy report from CIBC World Markets predicts gas prices will approach $7 a gallon by the summer of 2010, the same year oil prices will likely reach $200 per barrel.

Not surprisingly, CIBC sees wrenching problems for automakers in a $7-a-gallon world. Owning and driving a car will become too expensive for millions of lower-income Americans, forcing them to look for cheaper means of transport.

As a result, car sales will plummet. That trend has already started to play out as gas prices have risen. Sales of automobiles, which averaged close to 17 million units per year over the first half of the decade, have dropped to 14 million units a year.

CIBC expects sales to drop to as low as 11 million units a year by 2012, the lowest level since the early 1980s.

“The market share of light trucks, SUVs and vans will be literally halved, reversing the trend of the last 15 years,” said Jeff Rubin, chief economist and chief strategist at CIBC World Markets.

Auto manufacturers have already begun offering cash-back incentives and zero-percent financing as light trucks and SUVs pile up in auto showrooms. Last week, Ford cut truck production and delayed the launch of its redesigned best-selling F-150 pickup truck in anticipation of lower sales this year.

Mr. Rubin said higher gas prices will cause Americans to cut back on driving and turn to more fuel-efficient vehicles. The report predicts that about 10 million vehicles will be forced off the road because of the high cost of driving. “About half of the number of cars coming off the road in the next four years will be from low-income households who have access to public transit,” he said.

Americans are indeed driving less this year. Mr. Rubin said average miles driven will likely fall by 15% this year. He added that gasoline consumption in the U.S. has declined sharply since the start of this year and should show the first annual decrease in 17 years.

[2wheel_lee]

As they say, with all bad comes some good. Here are some of the good things we should expect to see from this:

1) People will become more used to the idea of commuting on bikes. Even those who still drive their cars will become more aware of cyclists. That's us.

2) Those who do still travel by car on the freeways will have less traffic to deal with. Who doesn't want less traffic on their commute?

3) Although emissions output by vehicles is improving with each production year, the reduced number of vehicles will further reduce emissions output.

4) Although more expensive, vacationing can improve because of fewer people traveling. How nice it will be to camp or get a hotel when you have many more places available.

This is all simply part of the evolution of our society. Many other societies already live within some of these confines (although some are better prepared). Change happens, and how we handle it is up to us. Yeah, it sucks paying big dollars at the pumps, but unless you can do something, there's no point in worrying about it. Accept that it is our destiny. But now you can be like your parents, saying how nice it was in the good ol' days.

[jakethecake]

Now i just have to talk the admins into moving the building closer to where i live so i can commute.

[92se-r]

i call bs. as prices go up, demand goes down. it will find a happy medium.

[kdog4130]

I belive the oil companies are using the "push till they squeal" method right now. How far will it go before everyone gets super pissed off?? I think it is allready happening at a very steady pace. Then you have all of the speculators rising prices, as a hurricane gets closer to the Gulf, only when it misses, the prices stay up instead of going down. Meanwhile all of these crooks heading up these companies are lighting their Cuban cigars with Hundred dollar bills.

[freekengo]

Originally Posted by kdog4130

I belive the oil companies are using the "push till they squeal" method right now. How far will it go before everyone gets super pissed off?? I think it is allready happening at a very steady pace. Then you have all of the speculators rising prices, as a hurricane gets closer to the Gulf, only when it misses, the prices stay up instead of going down. Meanwhile all of these crooks heading up these companies are lighting their Cuban cigars with Hundred dollar bills.

Welcome to capitalism.

[duke777]

Saw a news article, right now 61% of all trading is done by speculators.....does that remind you of the housing market? It'll go up to the point of collapse before it comes down. By then a few would be fat and happy and the rest of the folks suffer....just like the housing market.

It's just one scam to another!

[ericfoltz]

Three reasons oil prices won't go down:

1. China is growing and will pay any price for energy.

2. India is right behind China in fueling demand.

3. Weak US dollar (the lower the value, the less oil it buys).

It really doesn't matter if we cut demand here in the US. China and India will continue their huge growth rates and will buy any oil that is available at whatever price.

Unfortunately, we have made almost no investment in researching alternative energy sources since Carter left office leaving us behind most of the world in breaking the dependence on fossil fuels.

[92se-r]

i dont buy that india and china will continue their double digit growth rates. i bet that next year will be the first year in a decade that china doesnt have double digit growth. their economies are directly tied to ours.

[kdog4130]

Originally Posted by freekengo

Welcome to capitalism.

I belive the quote is "God bless Capitalisim"

[2wheel_lee]

Originally Posted by 92se-r

i dont buy that india and china will continue their double digit growth rates. i bet that next year will be the first year in a decade that china doesnt have double digit growth. their economies are directly tied to ours.

You must not be familiar with the China's emerging automobile and motorcycle industries.

[slowSSer]

Originally Posted by 92se-r

i dont buy that india and china will continue their double digit growth rates. i bet that next year will be the first year in a decade that china doesnt have double digit growth. their economies are directly tied to ours.

i believe the growth rates are slowing/plateauing, especially when it comes to populations.

[kdog4130]

Originally Posted by 2wheel_lee

You must not be familiar with the China's emerging automobile and motorcycle industries.

If I am correct, they are one of, if not the fastest growing Countries in the World right now. They are in the middle of a huge economic boom at the moment, and things are looking pretty darn good for their future.

[2wheel_lee]

Originally Posted by kdog4130

I belive the oil companies are using the "push till they squeal" method right now. How far will it go before everyone gets super pissed off?? I think it is allready happening at a very steady pace.

People squealed at $2. Then again people raised hell at $3. Then again at $4. And $5 is right around the corner. We, as the American public only squeal - we don't do anything about it except find ways to adapt...hence this very thread.

If anyone remember many of the excuses for the price of fuel going up, one of the most commonly used excuse after increased demand and a problem with a local refinery is the lack of demand. Yes, they've blamed the lack of demand on the price of fuel going up.

Originally Posted by kdog4130

If I am correct, they are one of, if not the fastest growing Countries in the World right now. They are in the middle of a huge economic boom at the moment, and things are looking pretty darn good for their future.

You obviously are aware.

Don't be surprised that if during our lifetimes that China becomes the world's number 1 super power, all while the US shoots itself in the foot. China's products may be junk now, but the industries in China are learning...and learning fast.

[stinkyrider]

Goddammit. Haven't they figured out that cold fusion reactor by now?

Yeah, God bless capitalism. It's only a matter of time before petroleum gets so expensive that other sources of energy look pretty damn good. Give it enough time to develop infrastructure and it'll eventually blow the petroleum industry out of the water. Hydrogen fuel cell? Bio diesel? Ethanol?

Another option could be cars powered by mini Thorium reactors since it is far safer than Uranium or plutonium reactors (it only kills you if you inhale or ingest it). Thousands of miles per gallon sounds nice. If gas gets high enough, developing these technologies becomes more economically viable. I don't know if I'll live that long but I'd love to see such a technology replace fossil fuels and oil executives begging for spare change on street corners.

[RidetheRAAM4]

we can not re-use any of our nuclear waste though, thats the main problem. Even though like 99% of the waste can be reused. Those french people got it down. Too bad we have had too many stupid presidents

[92se-r]

lol. you must not be familiar with the cherry's crash test results. look them up on youtube. they tried to pass the german crash test standards and the frame buckled so bad, the crash test dummy was the crumple zone. you can hear the engineers laughing in the video.

india's tata is also an emerging manufacturer.
but again, world economies are totally tied to the us economy.

so we'll see.

Originally Posted by 2wheel_lee

You must not be familiar with the China's emerging automobile and motorcycle industries.

[EJ_92606]

Originally Posted by 92se-r

i dont buy that india and china will continue their double digit growth rates. i bet that next year will be the first year in a decade that china doesnt have double digit growth. their economies are directly tied to ours.

Yes and their gas is heavily subsidized by the government which just announced a big price increase...once they start paying market prices for gasoline, the growth of the automobile over there will slow dramatically if not completely.